Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: AFU face threat of encirclement in Kursk, Russia retreats near Pokrovsk, “layer cake” in Toretsk

Contents

1 In this week’s summary:
2 Situation at the front
3 Mutual strikes and sabotage
4 Losses
5 Weapons and military vehicles

In this week’s summary:

Russian formations are advancing on the flanks of the AFU’s foothold in the Kursk Region, creating a threat of complete encirclement for the Ukrainian group operating in the area.
After a series of Ukrainian counterattacks, the situation in Toretsk, which was “captured on credit” — or “borrowed” — by Russian troops a month ago, now resembles a “layer cake.”
Russian forces are retreating from some positions on the salient southwest of Pokrovsk.
A decline in both the number of clashes and the rate of territorial advances by Russian forces is being recorded in Ukraine.
The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have restored the use of guided aerial bombs in February 2025 to an average of 124 per day.
A classified Russian Defense Ministry report has revealed over 50,000 cases of desertion and “unauthorized departures” from military units in 2024.
Independent exiled publication Mediazona reports that cases involving 115 Ukrainian military personnel and 11 foreign fighters captured in the Kursk Region have been handed over to Russian military courts.
U.S. President Donald Trump has suspended military aid shipments and restricted intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Situation at the front

Over the past week, the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Kursk Region has significantly deteriorated. Footage of a Russian flag being raised in the village of Novaya Sorochina confirmed the advance of Russian forces south of Pogrebki. Later, the Ukrainian open source intelligence (OSINT) project DeepState verified that Ukraine had lost control over an additional 10% of its bridgehead in the Kursk Region, with a significant portion of the northern sector turning into a “gray zone.” Ukrainian sources (1, 2, 3) reported that Russian artillery and FPV drones had established fire control over the main Ukrainian supply route from Yunakovka to Sudzha. Russian pro-war channels circulated a video of strikes on Ukrainian logistics.

Russian forces also continued their attempts to break into Ukraine’s Sumy Region along the same road on the western flank of the AFU’s bridgehead. By Friday, they had penetrated up to 1 km into Ukrainian territory. Simultaneously, Russia also achieved a breakthrough near Kurilovka, south of Sudzha, almost reaching the state border with Ukraine — thereby threatening the AFU grouping with encirclement. DeepState’s analysts believe that the Russian forces’ ultimate goal is to physically sever Ukrainian supply lines in the Kursk Region. Reports suggest that North Korean fighters are once again actively participating in battles in this area.

According to Russian pro-war channels (1, 2), the situation in Toretsk, which was “captured on credit” — or “borrowed” — on Feb. 7, resembles a “layer cake” containing pockets of AFU resistance. Ukrainian forces are attempting to push toward the city center, creating local superiority and increasing their presence in the city and surrounding areas. Russian serviceman Svyatoslav Golikov has described “pocket battles” in Toretsk that are disrupting Russian plans for an advance on Kostyantynivka.

Ukrainian forces carried out successful counterattacks in the areas of Uspenivka, Udachne, and Kotlyn. According to Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov, these successes were achieved thanks to improved command and coordination of fire support — particularly in cooperation with drones and artillery. Meanwhile, the number of Russian attacks in this operational zone is steadily decreasing — possibly due to depleting stocks of both armored vehicles and civilian cars, forcing Russian assault troops to use buses to maneuever.

By the end of the week, Russia’s pro-war channels (1, 2, 3) even reported the start of a Ukrainian “counteroffensive” on the Pokrovsk front, pointing to the AFU’s advances in Uspenivka and Shevchenko. According to a report by self-styled “war correspondent” Andrey Filatov, Russia’s setbacks comemainly due to logistical problems, AFU drone superiority, and reckless orders from commanders.

The Ukrainian channel Oko Hora ✙ News and Analytics published an infographic on the number of clashes taking place inside Ukraine from Feb. 24 to March 2, 2025. It shows a 13% decrease, the lowest level seen in the past nine months (the data excludes operations on the Kursk front). Oko Hora also released an infographic on the territorial advances of Russian forces over the same period, indicating that Russian troops captured only 2 square kilometers per day during that week.

DeepState notes that Russian territorial gains have been declining for three consecutive months. While in January 2025 Russian forces captured 325 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, in February they took only 192 square kilometers. The peak came in November 2024, with 730 square kilometers. The decline is also reflected in the assessments of pro-Russian OSINT project LostArmour.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

Over the past week, the Ukrainian Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) shooting down 560 Shahed-type and other unidentified drones out of 902 launched across Ukraine. Another 314 drones were “radar-lost” under the influence of electronic warfare. The Air Force also intercepted 34 of 67 missiles launched overnight on Mar. 7 during an attack that targeted Ukraine’s gas and energy infrastructure (1, 2). In Kharkiv, at least eight people were injured following a strike on an infrastructure facility.

Losses

The Russian Ministry of Defense has recorded over 50,000 cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of military units in 2024. The data was cited in a classified report, which was handed over to the Ukrainian project InformNapalm by hackers. The highest number of deserters was observed in the Southern Military District, where mobilized soldiers from the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk “people's republics” (“LPR” and “DPR”) are serving.

On Feb. 28, 2025, close to 150 Russian servicemen who refused to fight in Ukraine for various reasons — many of whom were wounded and using crutches — were forcibly removed (1, 2, 3, 4) from the military commandant’s office in the town of Chebarkul in Russia’s Chelyabinsk Region. They were transported to a tent camp 20 km from Koltsovo Airport in Yekaterinburg, where they refused to board a plane, staging a “mutiny.” Later, about 20 armed military police officers tricked them into boarding the aircraft. Upon arrival in Rostov-on-Don, they were left without food or water and then loaded onto buses and transported to Luhansk in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

The 2nd Western District Military Court has received cases against 115 Ukrainian servicemen captured in the Kursk Region, all of whom have been accused of terrorism. 11 foreign fighters have also been charged with “mercenarism,” according to a report by the independent exiled Russian publication Mediazona. At least 30 individuals have already been sentenced to prison terms ranging from 15 to 17 years.

Weapons and military vehicles

This week, Donald Trump paused U.S. military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine. Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, described the move as part of a “push” for Kyiv to “engage in diplomatic activities.” The U.S. government has also restricted Ukrainian users' access to the G-EGD (Global Enhanced Geospatial Intelligence Delivery) program on the Maxar platform (Ukraine is still able to purchase commercial satellite imagery).

A report by The Insider indicated that Ukraine’s European allies could theoretically continue to provide substantial amounts of support to Kyiv even if U.S. aid were completely cut off. However, success depends on solving key challenges: political will among European leaders, significant increases in defense spending, and the inability to fully replace certain types of American weaponry — particularly long-range missiles and air defense systems (for example, stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles could run out within weeks).

As for intelligence sharing, France has publicly confirmed that it will offer its intelligence capabilities to Ukraine, and confidential sources cited by The Guardian indicate that the United Kingdom intends to do the same. Meanwhile, the European Commission is exploring alternatives to ensure Ukraine’s access to satellite communication in the event the AFU’s access to Starlink is cut off.

Over the past week, Ukraine’s front-line “craftsmen” showcased a new process for adapting the OZM-72 anti-personnel mine for remote use.

Highlights among Russia’s adaptations included a heavy armored personnel carrier (APC) built on a T-80 tank chassis, reinforced with Kontakt-1 dynamic armor, along with a modified buggy based on a Lada Oka, wrapped in a net similar to those used in futsal (5-on-5 soccer played on a basketball court).