Weekly Ukraine war summary: Ukraine hit with ICBM, Russia suffers ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes, fighting goes on in Toretsk and Kurakhove

In this week's summary:

• DeepState reports significant losses among Ukrainian forces in the Olgovsky forest in the north of the AFU bridgehead in Russia's Kursk Region.
• The Russian Armed Forces planted a flag in Kurakhove and advanced south of the town and north of the Kurakhivske Reservoir.
• Russian troops are trying to encircle Velyka Novosilka on the Vremyevsky Bulge with enveloping strikes.
• Fierce fighting is unfolding in the center of Toretsk for advantageous positions in a high-rise area.
• ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles were used by Ukraine against targets on internationally recognized Russian territory for the first time.
• Putin admitted striking Ukraine with “Oreshnik” — a state-of-the-art hypersonic missile “with a non-nuclear warhead.”
• The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona have counted almost 80,000 confirmed killed on the Russian side since Feb. 24, 2022.
• Based on leaked documents, IStories reports that more than 1,000 soldiers have deserted from Russia's 20th Motorized Rifle Division.

Situation at the front

During the week, Russian sources have repeatedly mentioned a “pocket” near Olgovka in Russia's Kursk Region, where several hundred Ukrainian fighters have allegedly fallen. As evidence, Russian Telegram channels presented images (1, 2) of Ukrainian soldiers' bodies. DeepState recognized significant personnel losses in the Olgovsky Forest and promised to investigate the circumstances. DeepState analysts also noted the advance of the Russian Armed Forces near Daryino, Nizhny Klin, and Kremyanoe on the western and northern flanks of the Kursk bridgehead.

The situation in the vicinity of Kurakhove continued to escalate, with Russian troops making significant advances in the town itself and even planting a flag — although not in the center, contrary to what so-called “war correspondent” Alexander Sladkov claimed, but in an industrial zone on the eastern outskirts. The Russian Armed Forces captured Nova Illinka on the northern bank of the Kurakhivske Reservoir and occupied Dalne south of Kurakhove, thus dangerously narrowing the neck of the pocket in the southeast of the Kurakhove operational area, where Ukrainian units are defending. The Russians are also advancing inside the pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces launched an offensive towards Velyka Novosilka at the Vremyesky bulge at the junction of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. With strikes on Rozdolne and from the direction of Rivnopil, the Russian command most likely seeks to encircle Velyka Novosilka and subsequently threaten the supply lines of Kurakhove's Ukrainian defenders.

Ukrainian servicemen report fighting in the center of Toretsk, noting that Russian forces would gain an advantage if they can capture high-rise buildings there. The Russians also made progress in the Zabalka residential district, but in the meantime, former Ukrainian prisoners from the Shkval Battalion of the 28th Separate Motorized Brigade recaptured a treeline north of the town.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

On Nov. 18, media reported (1, 2) the lifting of the Western ban on the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG missiles on Russia's internationally recognized territory. According to some reports, the decision only concerned Russia’s Kursk Region and was prompted by the deployment of North Korean troops in the area. However, the very next day, ATACMS missiles hit an ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region. The attack was followed by a Storm Shadow missile strike on a command post in the Kursk Region, where 18 soldiers on the Russian side were reportedly killed and a high-ranking North Korean military officer was wounded.

Shortly after the use of Western-made weapons on Russian territory, Moscow released an updated version of its nuclear doctrine, with the list of conditions for the use of nuclear weapons now including conventional missile and drone strikes. This was followed by what the AFU claimed was a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile strike on the center of Dnipro. According to the Dnipropetrovsk Region Military Administration, an industrial plant and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities were damaged, and two people were injured. Later, Vladimir Putin said in an urgent video address to the nation that the strike in question had targeted the Pivdenmash plant and had been carried out with a state-of-the-art medium-range ballistic missile system “in a non-nuclear hypersonic configuration,” called Oreshnik (“Hazel”).

The Pentagon suggests that the Oreshnik is based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile. Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) believes that in reality the strike was performed with a Kedr mobile missile system, and that Oreshnik is simply the title of the relevant R&D project.

In addition, the AFU Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the launch of 507 Russian UAVs, including Shahed-type drones. Of these, 274 were shot down and another 203 were “radar-lost” — meaning they crashed under the influence of electronic warfare tools or turned out to be decoys.

In addition, Russia launched 138 missiles of various types, including Oreshnik, at Ukrainian territory. Of those, 120 were launched on Nov. 17, when the Russian Armed Forces launched the largest combined missile and drone strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since mid-August 2024. The attack claimed five lives while reducing output from Ukrainian nuclear power plants, causing more blackouts. Ukrainian air defense forces managed to shoot down 110 missiles, with 102 downed on Nov. 17.

The Russian Armed Forces also carried out the following strikes on Ukrainian cities:

• On Nov. 18, a ballistic missile hit a nine-story building in Sumy, killing 11 people, including two children, and wounding 68; in Odesa, ten people were killed and 39 wounded when a downed ballistic missile from an Iskander missile launcher crashed in a residential neighborhood.
• On Nov. 19, two Shahed UAVs hit a five-story dormitory in Hlukhiv, Sumy Region, killing at least 12 people, including a child. Thirteen people were injured, including three children; another 10 were injured in a raid on Kharkiv.
• On Nov. 21, a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih injured 32 people; six people were injured in an airstrike on Kostyantynivka involving two FAB bombs.
• On May 22, two people were killed and 12 injured in Sumy as a result of an attack with Shaheds with shrapnel warheads.

In turn, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) the interception of 193 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and four sea drones. In addition to the missile attacks listed above, Ukrainian forces struck the following known targets this past week:

• The Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant (Kupol) in Udmurtia, where a worker at the UAV production shop was lightly wounded.
• A group of Russian Armed Forces personnel in the occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia.
• The command post of the North Grouping of Forces in Russia's Belgorod Region.
• Mayonnaise, yogurt, and cheese factories in Belgorod and Voronezh regions; the facilities were presumably involved in the production of UAVs and explosives, and the company owning one of the factories is also known to produce cargo drones (1, 2).
• An oil depot in the Samara Region.
• A weapons depot in the Novgorod Region.

Losses

The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, have updated the Russian side's war casualty counts based on open-source reports. Data is available for a total of 79,819 dead, with another 2,676 names added to the list between Nov. 8 and Nov. 22.

Russian pro-war channel TROIKA 🏴‍☠️ published footage of another shooting of Ukrainian prisoners, framing it as “retaliation” for two prisoners of war taken in Kupyansk.

The independent publication IStories released a piece covering the cases of mass absence without leave in the 20th Motorized Rifle Division deployed in the Volgograd Region. A total of 1,010 people are on the wanted list, including 858 contract soldiers, 150 mobilized fighters, and two conscripts. Among them are 26 junior officers, one major, and two lieutenant colonels. Official data on the number of deserters in the Russian Armed Forces is not disclosed, but it is known that since the beginning of the war, garrison courts have received a total of 11,700 AWOL cases.

Weapons and military vehicles

United States President Joe Biden has approved the delivery of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine in a “non-persistent” version: such mines self-destruct after a few days or weeks. In addition, the U.S. has allocated another $275-million military aid package to Ukraine under the PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority), which will include ammunition for artillery, mortars, MANPADS, HIMARS, UAVs, and other equipment.

Germany, in turn, reported delivering to Ukraine, among other items, four PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, 40,000 155-mm artillery rounds, 47 MRAP armored vehicles, several hundred UAVs of various types, and various engineering and auxiliary vehicles.

The governments of Norway and Sweden have confirmed plans to invest in the Ukrainian defense industry, including the production of long-range drones. In 2024, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has so far produced 100 missiles; plans for 2025 include increasing their output to 3,000 and producing 30,000 long-range UAVs. This is all the more important because, according to The Times, Ukraine has no more than 50 ATACMS left for strikes inside Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian frontline footage showcases such logistical masterpieces as a UAZ-452 off-road van with “barbecue grill” makeshift armor and an electronic warfare system, and a Ural truck with explosive reactive armor on the windshield, dangerous primarily for the driver. In addition, Magadan region authorities promised fighters of the “special military operation” in Ukraine reindeer skins — for warmth, camouflage, and protection from thermal imaging cameras.