Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russia advances in Kursk, France commits to supply Mirage fighter jets to Kyiv

In this week's summary:

• Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk Region, attempting to “cut off” the northern “bulge” of the AFU's foothold.
• After capturing Vuhledar, Russian forces are pushing toward Zolota Nyva, though Ukrainian defenses have not yet collapsed in the area.
• Ukrainian forces are preparing to defend Myrnohrad, while in Toretsk, they control only about half of the town.
• Since the start of the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk Region, Russian forces have captured more territory in Donbas than they did in all of 2024.
• Criticism is growing within Russia’s pro-war community over Russian censors' ban of Discord, which is used for command and control.
• “Human safari” in Kherson — Russian drone operators are hunting civilians in informal “red zones.”
• Air raids have targeted distilleries, oil depots, ammunition warehouses, and military airfields in Russia.
• France is training a new AFU brigade and preparing to transfer 12 to 20 Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets to Kyiv.

Situation at the front

Since the beginning of the week, Russian forces have been attempting to cut off the northern salient of the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk Region. Initially, Ukrainian forces managed to repel the attacks, but by the end of the week, Russian troops had made significant gains on the western flank, putting Ukrainian forces further north in a precarious position. However, the overall situation in this direction remains unclear. Additionally, sources in Russia’s pro-war community (1, 2) reported that Ukrainian units were pushed back from the village of Veseloye in the Glushkovsky District, where they had previously attempted another incursion into the Kursk Region.

UAV — unmanned aerial vehicle. It is used as an umbrella term for various categories of unmanned aerial systems, ranging from small drone-type devices to large reconnaissance and strike drones like the Bayraktar TB2, and loitering munition systems such as the «Shahed.»

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.

Kinzhal is a Russian air-launched ballistic missile, an adaptation of the Iskander missile system designed for deployment from aircraft (most commonly the MiG-31K). It is promoted by Russian propaganda as a hypersonic weapon, even though it does not meet the modern criteria for such a classification. Nevertheless, it remains a highly challenging target for air defense systems.

GRAU (Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is a military management body responsible for the supply, storage, and maintenance of missile and artillery systems and their associated ammunition.

An artillery shot is the more accurate term for what are commonly referred to as projectiles. It typically consists of the shell proper, the propellant charge that provides the initial velocity, and the casing that holds these two components together.

FPV drones (First Person View drones) are unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the user through a first-person perspective. The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the flight path of the drone (kamikaze in the majority of cases), allowing it to enter enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected components of military equipment.

Developments on other fronts were less dramatic. After capturing Vuhledar, Russian forces advanced to the settlement of Zolota Nyva and secured it (1, 2), though it is too early to speak of a Ukrainian defensive collapse in this area. A Russian assault on Kamenske, on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Zaporizhzhia Region, resulted in heavy losses due to UAV strikes.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have reached Myrnohrad, while DeepState assesses the fortification structures guarding the city's approaches as inadequate. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have begun fortifying positions beyond Pokrovsk all the way to the Dnipropetrovsk Region’s border. Further south, Russian troops are advancing northwest toward Kurakhove, with forward units now less than a kilometer from the town. Additionally, Russian forces have seized roughly half of Toretsk, where fierce fighting is ongoing “for every single housing block.”

UAV — unmanned aerial vehicle. It is used as an umbrella term for various categories of unmanned aerial systems, ranging from small drone-type devices to large reconnaissance and strike drones like the Bayraktar TB2, and loitering munition systems such as the «Shahed.»

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.

Kinzhal is a Russian air-launched ballistic missile, an adaptation of the Iskander missile system designed for deployment from aircraft (most commonly the MiG-31K). It is promoted by Russian propaganda as a hypersonic weapon, even though it does not meet the modern criteria for such a classification. Nevertheless, it remains a highly challenging target for air defense systems.

GRAU (Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is a military management body responsible for the supply, storage, and maintenance of missile and artillery systems and their associated ammunition.

An artillery shot is the more accurate term for what are commonly referred to as projectiles. It typically consists of the shell proper, the propellant charge that provides the initial velocity, and the casing that holds these two components together.

FPV drones (First Person View drones) are unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the user through a first-person perspective. The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the flight path of the drone (kamikaze in the majority of cases), allowing it to enter enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected components of military equipment.

According to estimates by Agentstvo, since the start of the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk Region on Aug. 6, Russian forces have captured more territory in the Donetsk Region than it did during the entire period of 2024 up to that date. Ukrainian military officials told The New York Times that their strategy is focused not on holding territory, but on exhausting Russian reserves.

The most intense discussions within the Russian pro-war community were not about the frontline events, but rather about Russian government censorship organ Roskomnadzor’s decision to block Discord. The platform, popular not only among gamers but also in Ukrainian and Russian command centers, allows group voice chats and multiple simultaneous live streams, enabling real-time battlefield monitoring via several reconnaissance drones. Russian pro-war activists and “war correspondents” reported disruptions to combat operations, with some even accusing the Russian censorship agency of sabotage.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) that 344 Shahed drones were launched during the week, of which 200 were shot down, 117 were “radar-lost” due to electronic warfare, and four returned to Russia. Additionally, 20 missiles were launched, four of which (including two Kinzhal missiles) were successfully intercepted.

In the Dnipropetrovsk Region, an Iskander ballistic missile struck an AN/MPQ-53 radar of a Patriot missile defense system, despite launches from the system's interceptors. Russian forces also attacked Odesa's port infrastructure this week, targeting civilian ships (1, 2), resulting in eight deaths and 16 injuries, including of foreign nationals. In Kharkiv, a missile attack on a civilian facility injured 21 people. Details have also emerged regarding the “human safari” organized by Russian forces in Kherson: several informal “red zones” have been established in the city, where drones indiscriminately target any vehicle, including civilian ones. Identified Ukrainian positions are being shelled by Russian artillery and hit with glide bombs, with little regard for civilian casualties.

In turn, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the interception of 200 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over Russian territory and occupied Crimea (92 of which were launched on the night of October 10). Throughout the week, Ukrainian forces targeted the following:

• On the night of October 5, alcohol distilleries in the Belgorod and Voronezh regions and a feed mill in occupied Luhansk.
• On the night of October 7, an oil terminal in the port of Feodosia in Crimea, where as of October 11, oil storage tanks continued to burn and explode (at least five tanks are estimated to have been destroyed).
• On the night of October 9, the 67th GRAU arsenal in Bryansk region, where, unlike in previous strikes, only two ammunition depots were damaged.
• On the night of October 10, a UAV warehouse near Yeisk in Krasnodar Krai (with varying reports of over 100 to 400 Shahed drones destroyed) and the Khanskaya military airfield in Adygea (where four missiles, 15 aerial bombs, and 41 UMPK guidance kits were destroyed).

Losses

A Russian heavy combat drone, S-70 Okhotnik, crashed near Kostyantynivka. According to several pro-war channels (1, 2, 3, 4), it was shot down by a Russian fighter jet (likely the newest Su-57) after the Okhotnik lost control and headed toward Ukrainian-controlled territory. Judging by the drone wreckage, it was carrying UMPB D-30SN guided bombs. It is known that only four Okhotnik drones were built, with the first one set to be insured for 1.28 billion rubles ($13.4 million) in 2020.

UAV — unmanned aerial vehicle. It is used as an umbrella term for various categories of unmanned aerial systems, ranging from small drone-type devices to large reconnaissance and strike drones like the Bayraktar TB2, and loitering munition systems such as the «Shahed.»

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.

Kinzhal is a Russian air-launched ballistic missile, an adaptation of the Iskander missile system designed for deployment from aircraft (most commonly the MiG-31K). It is promoted by Russian propaganda as a hypersonic weapon, even though it does not meet the modern criteria for such a classification. Nevertheless, it remains a highly challenging target for air defense systems.

GRAU (Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is a military management body responsible for the supply, storage, and maintenance of missile and artillery systems and their associated ammunition.

An artillery shot is the more accurate term for what are commonly referred to as projectiles. It typically consists of the shell proper, the propellant charge that provides the initial velocity, and the casing that holds these two components together.

FPV drones (First Person View drones) are unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the user through a first-person perspective. The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the flight path of the drone (kamikaze in the majority of cases), allowing it to enter enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected components of military equipment.

The Azov National Guard Brigade has published footage showing the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war in the eastern Ukrainian town of Niu-York, which recently fell under Russian occupation. According to the interrogation of a Russian prisoner of war, the Ukrainian soldiers were executed because there was “no time to deal with them.” Ukrainian serviceman and military blogger “Ofitser✙” claims that 2 or 3 similar incidents occurred in the same area, though they were not captured on video. The Kharkiv regional prosecutor’s office also reported another execution of POWs at an industrial plant in Vovchansk, which was under Russian control at the time.

UAV — unmanned aerial vehicle. It is used as an umbrella term for various categories of unmanned aerial systems, ranging from small drone-type devices to large reconnaissance and strike drones like the Bayraktar TB2, and loitering munition systems such as the «Shahed.»

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.

Kinzhal is a Russian air-launched ballistic missile, an adaptation of the Iskander missile system designed for deployment from aircraft (most commonly the MiG-31K). It is promoted by Russian propaganda as a hypersonic weapon, even though it does not meet the modern criteria for such a classification. Nevertheless, it remains a highly challenging target for air defense systems.

GRAU (Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is a military management body responsible for the supply, storage, and maintenance of missile and artillery systems and their associated ammunition.

An artillery shot is the more accurate term for what are commonly referred to as projectiles. It typically consists of the shell proper, the propellant charge that provides the initial velocity, and the casing that holds these two components together.

FPV drones (First Person View drones) are unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the user through a first-person perspective. The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the flight path of the drone (kamikaze in the majority of cases), allowing it to enter enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected components of military equipment.

Weapons and military vehicles

French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed that some number of Mirage 2000 fighter jets will be delivered to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025. The aircraft are currently undergoing modernization to be equipped for air-to-surface strikes and fitted with electronic warfare systems. According to Avions Légendaires, between 12 and 20 Mirage 2000-5Fs will be transferred. France also showcased the training of Ukraine's Anna of Kyiv Brigade (named after the daughter of Prince Yaroslav the Wise of Kyiv and wife of French King Henry I), which is equipped with French arms and military vehicles.

In Germany, plans are in place to withdraw from storage 21 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles, based on the Leopard 1 tank. They will be converted into mine-clearing engineering vehicles (likely, their Wisent 1 variant) and delivered to the AFU. Additionally, last week Germany sent an IRIS-T SLM air defense system battery (partially funded by Norway) and two IRIS-T SLS launchers to Ukraine.

Over the past week, the following military aid shipments to Ukraine were confirmed or announced:

• The Netherlands will allocate €400 million for drone production for Ukraine, with up to half of the drones being manufactured domestically.
• Ukraine received 122 tons of artillery ammunition, funded through a Slovakian fundraiser protesting the national government's refusal to provide military aid to Ukraine.
• Turkish-made 152mm caliber artillery shots, produced after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, have been spotted in use by the AFU.
• Lithuania has delivered the first locally produced FPV drones to army depots, some of which will be sent to Ukraine.
• The Norwegian government has approved the allocation of $90 million to increase defense production, including the assembly of missile engines for air defense systems and the production of explosives, partly in support of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russian defense industry reported the delivery of a new batch of BMP-3 and BMD-4M infantry fighting vehicles, as well as at least two Su-34 fighter-bombers to the front. Ramzan Kadyrov, in turn, reported the delivery of 100 vehicles intended for infantry transport and the installation of various weapons, collectively referred to as “jihad trucks.”

UAV — unmanned aerial vehicle. It is used as an umbrella term for various categories of unmanned aerial systems, ranging from small drone-type devices to large reconnaissance and strike drones like the Bayraktar TB2, and loitering munition systems such as the «Shahed.»

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.

Kinzhal is a Russian air-launched ballistic missile, an adaptation of the Iskander missile system designed for deployment from aircraft (most commonly the MiG-31K). It is promoted by Russian propaganda as a hypersonic weapon, even though it does not meet the modern criteria for such a classification. Nevertheless, it remains a highly challenging target for air defense systems.

GRAU (Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is a military management body responsible for the supply, storage, and maintenance of missile and artillery systems and their associated ammunition.

An artillery shot is the more accurate term for what are commonly referred to as projectiles. It typically consists of the shell proper, the propellant charge that provides the initial velocity, and the casing that holds these two components together.

FPV drones (First Person View drones) are unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the user through a first-person perspective. The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the flight path of the drone (kamikaze in the majority of cases), allowing it to enter enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected components of military equipment.

Previous weekly summary (September 28 – October 4, 2024): Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russia captures Vuhledar, battles continue for aggregate plant in Vovchansk, AFU deploys net guns against drones

UAV — unmanned aerial vehicle. It is used as an umbrella term for various categories of unmanned aerial systems, ranging from small drone-type devices to large reconnaissance and strike drones like the Bayraktar TB2, and loitering munition systems such as the «Shahed.»

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.

Kinzhal is a Russian air-launched ballistic missile, an adaptation of the Iskander missile system designed for deployment from aircraft (most commonly the MiG-31K). It is promoted by Russian propaganda as a hypersonic weapon, even though it does not meet the modern criteria for such a classification. Nevertheless, it remains a highly challenging target for air defense systems.

GRAU (Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is a military management body responsible for the supply, storage, and maintenance of missile and artillery systems and their associated ammunition.

An artillery shot is the more accurate term for what are commonly referred to as projectiles. It typically consists of the shell proper, the propellant charge that provides the initial velocity, and the casing that holds these two components together.

FPV drones (First Person View drones) are unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the user through a first-person perspective. The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the flight path of the drone (kamikaze in the majority of cases), allowing it to enter enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected components of military equipment.