Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Raids on Russia's oil depots and chemical plants, battles in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, North Korean POWs

Contents

0.1 In this week's summary:

1 Situation at the front
2 Mutual strikes and sabotage
3 Losses
4 Weapons and military vehicles

In this week's summary:

Russian troops have liberated 63% of the Kursk Region area previously captured by the AFU, Russia's Ministry of Defense reports.
On the western flank of the Pokrovsk sector, Russia's Armed Forces reached the highway and railroad running from Pokrovsk to Mezhova.
At the Vremivka salient, Ukrainian forces have lost everything they gained during the 2023 summer counteroffensive.
In Toretsk, Russian assault troops are present throughout nearly all residential areas; in Chasiv Yar, they have captured a refractory factory.
Ukrainian drones hit several oil depots and chemical industry facilities in Russia this past week.
In Russia's Kursk Region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) captured two soldiers from the North Korean contingent, the first such POWs.
Russian volunteers of the Akhmat Regiment are being held “in a basement” in Chechnya to be sent to the front instead of Chechens, Astra reports.
“Artisans” from the Russian Armed Forces crafted a “post-apocalyptic UAZ van”, mounted a North Korean machine gun on a motorcycle, and equipped an armored personnel carrier with “skewers.”

Situation at the front

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported having liberated 63% (801 square kilometers) of the 1,268 square kilometers previously captured by the AFU in the Kursk Region. In doing so, the Russian MoD offered its first numerical assessment of the Ukrainian incursion and the Russian counteroffensive in the region. What the “liberation” looks like can be seen from the drone footage of the village of Daryino, posted by Ukraine’s 225th Storm Battalion.

DeepState is a Ukrainian project that maintains a regularly updated map of territories controlled by the opposing sides in the conflict zone in Ukraine and publishes reports on the situation at the front based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and information from Ukrainian military sources.

Vremivka salient is a provisional name for the operational area south of Velyka Novosilka. During the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, it was completely seized by Ukrainian forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense refers to the battles in this area as the Southern Donetsk direction, while the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense calls it the Berdiansk direction.

“Lost from radar” is a term used in reports by the Ukrainian Air Force regarding long-range Russian drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or were decoy drones that did not carry warheads and crashed without causing harm.

The Russian Armed Forces also attempted to force their way into the neighboring Sumy Region this week, but that effort failed. Overall, according to the Ukrainian DeepState project, the intensity of fighting in the Kursk sector has decreased. According to a visualization of the Ukrainian OSINT resource Dnipro Osint ( Garbuz ), the second wave of the Russian counteroffensive was less successful than the first one — despite the addition of North Korean troops.

In the Pokrovsk sector, the Russian Armed Forces continued their offensive aimed at enveloping the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad agglomeration from the west and east. On the western flank of the offensive, Russian troops reached the highway and railroad west of Pokrovsk at the Udachne-Kotlyne line and initiated battles for these settlements.

In the vicinity of Kurakhove, the Russian Armed Forces are simultaneously trying to envelop the remaining “pocket,” advancing from Shevchenko in the direction of Andriivka with a view of reaching Kostyantynopil and Ulakly on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia highway and squeezing the AFU out of the “pocket” by advancing further west of captured Kurakhove. Here, the Russian military managed to occupy Yantarne and gain a foothold on the outskirts of Dachne, where they continue to face Ukrainian counterattacks. In addition, the Russian command has attempted to disrupt the supply of the Ukrainian grouping by striking a bridge near Kostyantynopil with FAB aerial bombs, but available footage shows that the bridge has held up.

In the Vremivka salient, the Russian forces occupied Neskuchne and Vremivka (Russian control over the latter is confirmed by a planted flag). Emil Kastehelmi, an OSINT analyst at the Black Bird Group, notes that with the withdrawal from Neskuchne, the AFU has lost everything that they had liberated on the Vremivka salient during the summer counteroffensive of 2023. Russian military blogger Yuri Kotenok writes that all logistic routes toward Velyka Novosilka are either physically blocked or under “fire control.” Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces are shelling Velyka Novosilka from Uragan multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) — using rockets that carry propaganda leaflets containing calls for Ukrainian military personnel to surrender.

In the Toretsk sector, DeepState notes the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in almost all residential areas of Toretsk. In particular, they planted a flag in the northern part of the city — on spoil tip no. 10 in the 12th microdistrict.

In the Bakhmut sector, the AFU and the Russian Armed Forces are exchanging attacks and strikes on positions south of Chasiv Yar along the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas Canal, according to the author of the Telegram channel Temny, himself a Russian serviceman. Fighting continues in the city of Bakhmut, with Russian 98th Airborne Division assault troops reporting a sweep of the refractory factory, a development confirmed by the DeepState map.

In the Siversk sector, the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU repelled a large Russian motorcycle assault, claiming the destruction of 39 motorcycles, two ATVs, and two infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). In turn, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the AFU repulsed a massive Russian attack in the vicinity of Vyshneve south of Kupyansk — but the Russian Armed Forces captured the village of Makiivka, also in this sector.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The AFU Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) downing 357 Shahed drones and other UAVs of unidentified types out of 537 launched during the week. Another 167 UAVs were “radar lost.”

The AFU also claims to have intercepted 30 out of 45 launched missiles of various types. Of these, 43 were launched on the night of Jan. 15. The strike affected the above-ground equipment of a gas storage facility in Stryi District of the Lviv Region.

Russia is also known to have carried out strikes against the following civilian targets:

On Jan. 11, a drone struck a civilian vehicle outside the village of Primorske in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Zaporizhzhia Region. A woman was killed and another four people were injured.
On Jan. 12, the AFU reported two airstrikes near a boarding school in Sudzha, which served as a shelter for elderly people. One person was killed. Military analyst Yan Matveev draws attention to a large crater near a destroyed fire station building nearby, where Russian intelligence believes Ukrainian troops may have been stationed.
On Jan. 15, a multi-story building in Kramatorsk was reported hit in an airstrike. At least eight civilians, including two minors, were injured.
On Jan. 16, two people were killed and 10 were injured in a shelling strike in the Kherson Region, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
On Jan. 17, a strike on Kryvyi Rih damaged an apartment block, killing four people and injuring 14. Russian propagandists reported a strike on a supposed AFU barracks in the building of a supposedly non-operational college, but The Insider found that the educational institution was still working as a civilian place of higher learning at the time of the strike.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) intercepting 270 fixed-wing UAVs, eight Storm Shadow missiles, and a HIMARS rocket over Russian territory and the occupied Crimean Peninsula during the week. According to SHOT, more than 200 UAVs and five ATACMS missiles were downed on the night of Jan. 14 alone. Throughout the week, the following facilities were reportedly affected:

A command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Svitlodarsk in Donetsk Region on Jan. 10.
Multi-story houses in the vicinity of a gunpowder plant in Kotovsk, Russia's Tambov Region, on Jan. 11. No casualties were reported.
A TurkStream gas compressor station near Anapa on Jan. 11, with the Russian Defense Ministry reporting “minor damage.”
A command post of the 3rd Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Novohrodivka in Donetsk Region on Jan. 12.
The 50th Anniversary of the USSR Bryansk Chemical Plant, which produces explosives and ammunition, in the town of Seltso on Jan. 14.
On Jan. 14, at least six fuel tanks were damaged at the oil depot of the Rosrezerv Kristall oil storage facility in Engels, Saratov Region, where the fire from a previous raid was put out only a day before.
The Saratov Oil Refinery in the city of Saratov on Jan. 14, with at least one fuel tank affected.
A local liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) farm in Kazan on Jan. 14.
The facilities of oil company Transneft in Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan on Jan. 14.
Aleksinsky Chemical Plant in the Tula Region on Jan. 14.
A distillery in the village of Luzhkovsky in the Tula Region on Jan. 14.
Another distillery in the village of Novaya Lyada in the Tambov Region on Jan. 15.
An oil depot in Liskinsky District, Voronezh Region, Jan. 16.

The radar station of an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Belgorod Region on Jan. 16.

Losses

Volodymyr Zelensky reported the first North Korean soldiers captured alive. According to the Ukrainian president, the North Korean fighters were taken after being wounded. They were transported to Kyiv, where they received the necessary medical care. Both of the North Koreans said under questioning that they did not know they had been sent to war in Ukraine and initially believed they had come for exercises.

The independent publication Astra reported that Russian volunteers who enlisted in the Chechen Akhmat Regiment are being kept “in a basement” in Chechnya instead of being sent to war, and that they are not receiving the salaries promised to them when they signed up for the unit. According to the publication, Chechens who are sentenced to military service after running afoul of the law can pay a bribe of between $2,500 and $5,000 in order to have one of the detained “volunteers” sent off to fight in their place. The men in the basement say they have been held in inhumane conditions for between one and two months.

The Australian government expressed concern about the fate of a captive Australian, Oscar Jenkins, 32, whose beating was filmed by Russian military officers in December 2024. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he would take the “strongest possible action” if it turns out Jenkins was harmed while in Russian captivity. Earlier, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported the discovery of the body of a man with a tattoo resembling that of Jenkins near the location where the video was taken.

Weapons and military vehicles

Following the visit of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Kyiv, it was announced that the UK had promised to allocate $3.6 billion in military aid to Ukraine annually. This year, together with funds from frozen Russian assets, the total amount of aid will reach $6.6 billion. In addition, the UK promised to supply Ukraine with 150 barrels for artillery guns and state-of-the-art Gravehawk air defense missile systems.

Germany, in turn, updated its list of military aid delivered to Ukraine with new entries for artillery, mortar and tank munitions, various UAVs, and another 20 MRAP-class vehicles (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles). Additionally, five more Marder 1A3 IFVs and nine multi-purpose Boxer armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) are still scheduled for delivery. Germany also formally handed over to Kyiv the first RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled howitzer, but the weapon will remain in Germany for the time being and will be used for training Ukrainian personnel.

Russian frontline “artisans” expanded their fleet of unique products:

A barely recognizable BTR-80 AFV with “royal barbecue” makeshift armor and a mine exploder
A drone with a piece of metal on a rope designed to remotely clear Ukrainian magnetic mines
A “post-apocalyptic UAZ van” with a “barbecue grill” and rubber-textile armor
A motorcycle with a sidecar that has a North Korean machine gun welded on — its nickname: “Juche-gun”
“Musya,” a one-of-a-kind Moskvich-412 light vehicle converted into a pickup truck and outfitted with a grill and electronic warfare tools.
An armored personnel carrier with “skewers” of thick wire sticking out from the perimeter to protect against drones.