On Tuesday, the United States imposed record-breaking import tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China (although some of them have since been postponed). Republican senators, meanwhile, have launched an effort to withdraw the U.S. from the United Nations. These are just some of the radical initiatives being pushed by the new Trump administration and its loyal congressional majority. Trump is demanding large-scale concessions from Canada, is deploying troops to the Mexican border, and is pressuring Mexico to act as a buffer against migrants and drug cartels. Left-leaning Latin American leaders appear to have little hope of engagement with Washington, as Trump sees their countries primarily as destinations for deported migrants. However, Argentina, led by right-wing President Javier Milei, has already emerged as a key U.S. ally in Trump’s efforts to push China out of Latin America — starting with Panama. Even with Trump’s tendency for bold and often declarative rhetoric, his foreign policy has already begun reshaping global politics. Europe, for instance, is now adapting to life without U.S. security guarantees, writes analyst Anton Barbashin.
This article was originally published in Russian on March 3, 2025.
Trump's “America First” doctrine is crucial to his stance on global affairs and geopolitical strategy. Observers in North America and Europe have noted his hostility against alliances and multilateral cooperation, as well as his skepticism regarding traditional allies of the United States. His 2017 criticism of NATO — calling it “obsolete” — and the 2024 rumors about his desire to withdraw the U.S. from the North Atlantic bloc underscore the position.
Trump’s first term in the White House was marked by tensions with U.S. allies and neighbors, but the key question in 2025 is: where does the new administration’s populist rhetoric end and real policy begin?
Trump and his team have repeatedly insulted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him a “governor of the 51st state,” a girl, “two-faced,” and “dishonest and weak.” Back in 2022, Trump described Trudeau as “a far left lunatic who has destroyed Canada.”
For Trump’s conservative base, Trudeau represents everything they oppose — progressivism, tolerance, and a left-liberal agenda that has “gone too far.” In contrast, Trump’s policies emphasize national security and economic protectionism.
Beyond personal insults, Trump continues to push Canada for trade concessions while also blaming it for U.S. domestic problems — including the opioid crisis and illegal immigration.
Following Trump’s Feb. 2, 2025, announcement of a 25% tariff increase on Canadian exports to the U.S. — a significant move given that 72% of Canada’s exports, worth approximately $400 billion, go to the U.S. — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau swiftly agreed to address drug trafficking concerns and enhance border security. In response, Trump temporarily suspended the tariff hike for 30 days. However, the situation appeared to be more about political maneuvering than a genuine policy dispute, as the volume of fentanyl entering the U.S. from Canada remains minimal. In 2023, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reported that only 0.2% of all fentanyl smuggled into the U.S. entered via the northern border. The overwhelming majority — 12 tons in 2022 — came from Mexico.
If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to comply with Donald Trump’s demands regarding “security on the northern border,” it is reasonable to assume that no major shake-up in U.S.-Canada relations will occur. A precedent for this was set in 2019, when, following similar trade threats, Canada conceded during the USMCA renegotiation by expanding access to American dairy products by 3.6% — and the dispute essentially ended there.
Trump’s stance toward Mexico remains an extension of his domestic policy and campaign promises. His threats of economic pressure — including 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which totaled $456 billion in 2023 — are paired with the demand that Mexico secure the border, crack down on drug trafficking, and curb migrant flows.
For the Trump administration, Mexico must act as a “shield” against continued migration from Latin America, fully cooperating with the mass deportations Trump pledged throughout 2024, when he vowed to expel up to 11 million people from the U.S.
Trump is effectively continuing his first-term policies, emphasizing the completion of the “Great Wall of America.” Between 2017 and 2021, 654 miles of border wall were built, and an additional $3.8 billion was allocated for further construction in January this year.
Beyond border security, Trump is escalating U.S. military and intelligence operations against drug cartels in Mexico and across Latin America. A notable example was the 2024 operation targeting the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel. Trump has since announced new strikes on cartel bosses operating inside Mexico.
Ultimately, if Mexico seeks stable relations with Trump’s White House, its primary role will be actively blocking migration from the south and welcoming U.S. intelligence and special forces agents, who will periodically enter Mexican territory to “eliminate” cartel leaders.
Donald Trump’s primary demand from Latin American countries is to assist with mass deportations and cooperate in the fight against drug cartels. Those who refuse face tariffs and trade restrictions — an approach that defines his administration’s policy across the continent.
Trump is particularly focused on El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, pressing these nations to take in a larger share of asylum seekers and prevent their movement northward toward the U.S. In 2022 alone, 541,000 migrants from the “Northern Triangle” arrived in the United States.
Trump wants to radically reduce the number of undocumented people at the border with Mexico by all means at his disposal — regardless of their country of origin. Since 2022, more than 22,000 Russians have attempted to cross the border, many fleeing political repression. Others arrive from South American countries with a history of persecution based on religion, ethnicity, or politics — such as the 50,000 Venezuelans who arrived in September 2023 alone. But Trump’s Washington makes no special allowances for either group.
Trump wants to radically reduce the number of undocumented people at the border with Mexico by all means at his disposal.
Another key pillar of Trump’s Latin America policy involves revising trade agreements with Colombia, Peru, and Chile — purportedly in order to protect American manufacturers, a core Republican voting bloc. His tariff strategy primarily targets regional exporters of steel, aluminum, and agricultural products.
Venezuela remains a major flashpoint. Trump has threatened to intensify sanctions against the Maduro regime — building on the harshest sanctions he imposed in 2017 — unless Caracas agrees to take back its citizens who have fled to the U.S.
China’s growing influence in Latin America is another major concern. In 2023 alone, Beijing invested over $9 billion across the region.
While the Trump administration has handed out multiple threats against its southern neighbors, it is likely that if these countries align with his core initiatives, much of the rhetoric will remain just that — mere words.
Trump’s approach to the Panama Canal has been strikingly aggressive, with rhetoric reminiscent of Russian narratives about Crimea. His administration has suggested that handing over control of the canal was a “mistake.” In February, Trump declared: “We are going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen.” He has repeatedly framed regaining control of the canal as a necessary step to counter China’s regional expansion and has openly threatened military and economic action should Panama refuse.
Trump’s approach to the Panama Canal has been strikingly aggressive, with rhetoric reminiscent of Russian narratives about Crimea.
Currently, about 5% of global trade and 40% of all U.S. container traffic flows through the Panama Canal, with China accounting for nearly 22% of the waterway’s total usage. However, for now, Trump’s focus has shifted: in February 2025, he pivoted his attention toward Gaza and a potential Ukraine deal, while Panama signaled that it might abandon a major investment deal with China that would have granted Beijing broader access to Panamanian infrastructure, particularly the canal.
While Trump maintains a hostile stance toward left-wing leaders like Venezuela’s Maduro, Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega, and other leftist figures in Peru and Bolivia, he has openly embraced right-wing leaders. One of his strongest alliances is with Argentina’s leader Javier Milei, whom Trump recently called his “favorite president.” According to Argentina’s government press office, Trump has officially invited Milei to the White House.
Right from the start of his second presidential term, Donald Trump has reaffirmed his unwavering support for Israel. Washington has upheld key decisions from his first term — recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (2017) and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights as Israeli territory — while also allocating nearly $8 billion in military aid in January 2025.
Trump’s ultimate goal in Gaza remains unclear, as his administration has sent mixed signals. On Feb. 5, he suggested permanently relocating Gaza’s two million residents — demolishing all existing buildings, transforming the area into a “riviera,” and placing it under Israeli control. However, Trump has so far declined to deploy U.S. troops for such an ambitious plan, making it premature to draw conclusions about his actual policy toward Gaza.
On Feb. 25, Trump released an AI-generated video showcasing a vision of a U.S.-restored Gaza Strip. The footage depicted a luxury resort with skyscrapers, a long waterfront lined with yachts, a golden statue of Donald Trump, and a building resembling a hotel or casino labeled “Trump Gaza.”
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As for Iran, Trump’s agenda is radical: he aims to cut the country’s oil exports by 90% (which totaled $54 billion in 2024, accounting for 55% of Iran’s total exports), impose additional sanctions similar to those enacted in 2018 after withdrawing from the nuclear deal, potentially support Iranian opposition forces, and possibly pushing for regime change.
Beyond Israel, Trump views Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations as key allies. Washington has promised to boost arms sales to these countries — building on a $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia during Trump’s first term, which secured $20 billion in Saudi investments in the U.S. in return — while expanding trade and technology cooperation.
Trump’s approach to Syria largely aligns with his Iran policy. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Washington’s main objectives include combating the Islamic State and other radical Islamist groups while targeting Iranian proxies with the support of Syria’s new government.
In short, Trump’s Middle East strategy can be distilled into four key goals: bolster Israel, punish Iran, defeat the terrorists, and secure favorable deals.
For Trump’s team, China remains the primary strategic challenge, just as it has been going all the way back to the days of Barack Obama. Trump’s economic war against Beijing began in his first term, with tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods — a move that secured some concessions, even if the deal was later deemed a failure.
Now Trump is upping the economic pressure. Last year during the campaign, he announced plans for a 60% tariff hike and measures to restore U.S. “economic independence from China.” On Feb. 4, he signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports — covering $500 billion worth of goods annually — along with additional product categories outside this group.
Some businesses are already moving production from China to Southeast Asia to avoid the new tariffs. Trump is particularly focused on hampering the development of Chinese high-tech companies, seeing these measures as critical to winning the race to dominate the 21st century.
Trump’s team has made several statements about strengthening diplomatic and military ties with members of a tentative “anti-China” coalition, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia. He has firmly backed Taiwan — though not without leveraging threats of tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductor exports — and aims to deepen cooperation with India, viewing it as the primary counterweight to China in the “Greater Eurasia” region. On Feb. 13, following talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump declared that the relationship between the U.S. and India was the “strongest it’s ever been.” Modi, for his part, had already agreed to increase purchases of American goods.
Trump aims to deepen cooperation with India, viewing it as the primary counterweight to China.
Perhaps the most controversial aspect of Trump’s China policy is his effort to pull Moscow away from Beijing’s orbit — often referred to as a “reverse Nixon” (a nod to the successful efforts of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger to foster the Sino-Soviet split of 1972). This strategy is seen as a key factor in Trump’s push to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and thereby improve U.S.-Russia relations.
The U.S. is determined to counter China’s infrastructure projects in the region, expand trade ties with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, and create more opportunities for American businesses — all while imposing additional tariffs on non-compliant nations.
The greatest risk remains a potential conflict over Taiwan, where China continues to increase its military pressure. If Beijing takes aggressive action, even the most carefully calibrated U.S. policy could unravel. Trump has consistently said that he does not want war, but his “negotiating from a position of strength” strategy leaves little room for de-escalation in the event that China decides to take the gamble.
Trump’s administration plans to cut spending on humanitarian aid and infrastructure projects in Africa while simultaneously pushing for trade deals that benefit U.S. interests. Washington is pressuring African nations to reduce their economic reliance on China. However, Africa remains a low priority for Trump — perhaps the last on his list of foreign policy concerns.
Africa remains a low priority for Trump — perhaps the last on his list of foreign policy concerns.
Trump’s approach to Europe remains transactional, with NATO spending at the core of his demands. In 2024, only 18 of 31 NATO members met the 2% GDP defense spending target, while Germany lagged all the way back at 1.57%. Trump applies a similar “fair share” argument to Ukraine aid, where the EU has provided €118 billion since 2022, compared to a total of more than $174 billion from the U.S.
The new administration's unpredictable stance on the war may have permanently altered the post-1945 “special status” relations between Europe and the U.S. In recent weeks, a number of commentators across the EU have stressed that the continent “must take care of itself.” While this shift remains largely rhetorical for now, Trump has made it unmistakably clear that a European security involving minimal American participation is the new reality.
On trade, Trump continues to accuse Europe of unfair competition, demanding that the EU increase imports from the U.S. in order to reduce America’s trade deficit, which reached $235.6 billion in 2024. European nations are also preparing to ramp up purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a move prompted by an 18% drop in U.S. LNG exports to Europe in 2024.
A new element of Trump’s European policy is his open criticism of EU elites and his support for right-wing leaders such as Viktor Orbán of Hungary and the far-right AfD in Germany. Trump’s administration is also pressuring EU nations to counter China, particularly by banning Huawei technology and easing access for American businesses.
Despite public frustration among European leaders, it is evident that the EU will concede on Trump’s economic demands. However, they remain firmly opposed to Trump’s position on negotiating with Russia in order to decide the fate of Ukraine with insufficient input from Kyiv. European diplomats have made it clear: “Any agreement without [the EU] will fail.”
Trump has little interest in upholding international agreements that limit U.S. sovereignty. In January 2025, he confirmed the U.S. would pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement, withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council, and raised doubts about U.S. membership in NATO and the World Trade Organization (WTO) — though talk of leaving these organizations likely remains an empty threat.
While much of Trump’s second-term agenda mirrors the spirit of his first term, many of his more radical foreign policy statements are meant to intimidate allies and adversaries alike — a negotiating tactic designed to secure economic advantages for the U.S.
In essence, Trump’s European policy is revolutionary: America no longer guarantees the continent’s security, nor does it even symbolically champion democracy and freedom. Trump’s strategy is driven by cold calculations, economic gain, and a deliberate disengagement from past commitments to Washington’s key allies. This approach will inevitably reshape Europe — leaving the continent with little alternative but to adapt.